NATO'S PARAMOUNT GENERAL ⟩ Under Christopher Cavoli, the Allied Troops Train as They Fight

Exercising NATO Defense Plans

War games in Grafenwöhr explain General Cavoli's unprecedented openness about the peculiarities of Baltic military defense. "Precision can beat mass, but it takes time for it to work," said Cavoli in his candid keynote speech in Stockholm. Time is usually bought with space in battles. To use this method, the defending country needs to have space to cede to the aggressor.

Shaped like a sausage, the Baltic military theater is narrow and long. It lacks what think tankers like to call "strategic depth." Unlike in Ukraine, it is not possible to cede large amounts of Baltic territory to the opponent; there simply isn't much to cede. The area currently occupied by Russia in Ukraine is equivalent to about 70% of the territory of the three Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Thus, the military forces defending the Baltics must have sufficient firepower available at the onset of a conflict to hold back the mass of Russian forces while destroying the aggressor's logistics and command structure with precision strikes from a distance. Therefore, any future Russian onslaught on the Baltics must be countered with Allied "hard power" from the start. "Deterrence by denial", as Estonian top defense officials have coined it to the Estonian media.

No Illusions About Russian Threat

Christopher Cavoli's dedication to developing Baltic collective defense has been demonstrated also by the admission of the Estonian Defense Forces' newly established Army Division Staff to the prestigious U.S. Army Warfighter exercise, a participation he facilitated. Previously, only the United Kingdom and France had managed to be included.

The queue of countries wishing to participate in this leadership exercise reportedly stretches years long. At Warfighter, U.S. Corps and Division Staffs practice maneuvers, where SACEUR himself can exercise commanding the entire NATO defense in a tabletop exercise.

In a social encounter, Estonian Defense Forces Commander General Martin Herem found himself discussing earthworms with General Cavoli. Before becoming familiar with Russia during his master's studies at Yale University, Cavoli studied biology at Princeton University, defending his thesis on the effect of earthworms on slime molds in the soil in 1987.

Since Estonia's defense chief is known as a hobbyist mole hunter, and earthworms and moles share the same environment, the conversation briefly delved underground, to the astonishment of other allied officers at the table.

General Cavoli is known to be very approachable, provided the conversation partner can offer him some intellectual stimulation. "When he hears a captivating military thought, he lights up," one Estonian general described him. Estonian officers have caught General Cavoli's attention with insights into Russian military decision-making logic. As an expert in conventional warfare, SACEUR is an avid supporter of the reserve army model as practiced by Estonia and a few other NATO countries.

U.S. Army Should Focus on Europe

For an American general, the position of SACEUR may not necessarily be the first career choice. Many U.S. Army officers consider their own Army Staff a larger and more important entity than NATO, which only covers a fraction of the United States' global military geography. In addition to maintaining transatlantic ties, Americans must develop and maintain military bases and alliances in the Pacific region. Cavoli was enticed to leave the SACEUR position for the role of U.S. Army Chief of Staff, but he decided to stay.

SACEUR has promoted unorthodox views within the U.S. Army, notably that its main theater of war is still Europe. While the U.S. Navy and Air Force may shift focus between continents over time, Cavoli believes that the U.S. Army should permanently focus on Europe. To confirm this, Americans have increased their land forces' military presence in Europe, including strengthening artillery power.

In recent years, the leadership of U.S. Army Europe and Africa has become a true war-commanding headquarters, whereas a decade ago it was more of an administrative unit. It now boasts its own artillery command, air defense command, and logistics command in Europe.

General Cavoli has also advocated for U.S. forces to submit their strength to NATO's command as early as possible in the event of war. While many in the U.S. military understand NATO as a concept, it does not always mean they fully grasp the details and subordination relationships of NATO's Article 5 operations.

The general's good reputation has helped change this trend. As peculiar as it might sound, SACEUR has taken on the mission of popularizing NATO within the U.S. Army. Cavoli considers military personnel's attitudes toward NATO when making decisions. It is important to him that Americans serving in Europe view their presence in a NATO context and approach European allies with openness. As a four-star general, he undoubtedly has significant influence over U.S. military personnel decisions and attitudes.

Embodies a Unique Set of Qualities

Cavoli, often referred to as a "scholar soldier," uniquely combines a warrior's directness and specificity, an intellectual's discipline in discussion, and a diplomat's self-control. The latter can only be shaken by people who talk utter nonsense or are afraid to admit they've exhausted their knowledge. General officers must master the skill of, if necessary, tearing someone apart. General Cavoli is said to know this art well, but his disciplinary remarks focus on the argument, not the person.

Due to his highly developed self-management and debate skills, General Cavoli is also a valued spokesperson among politicians. In challenging times, it is crucial for SACEUR to have good relations with the political elite of the United States, NATO's largest military "sponsor."

The SACEUR, the military leader of NATO, has always been an American, a tradition established at NATO's inception in 1952. Washington holds the Alliance's largest nuclear arsenal, making it natural for NATO's military leader to be nominated by the White House.

In recent months, U.S. generals have faced significant political challenges. Last year, Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville began blocking hundreds of general nominations, citing the Pentagon's allegedly overly liberal stance on abortions among U.S. military personnel. While military training prepares individuals for high-stress situations, high command courses do not prepare future generals for political harassment.

In the case of the current SACEUR, politicians value his self-control and clarity of expression. Cavoli recently received accolades at NATO for explaining the nuances of its complex layered air defense structure to the North Atlantic Council in a comprehensible yet detailed manner.

General Cavoli has also elevated military discussions within NATO to the appropriate scale. Estonia's proposal two years ago to establish a NATO division headquarters in each Baltic state sounded unusually ambitious, even to their own leaders, as the Baltic states had previously discussed pre-deployed battalions. This scale jump fit naturally with the new SACEUR's proposal to end battalion-level thinking in NATO's collective defense discussions.

It Takes Time to Return NATO to its Military Roots

At Cavoli's insistence, discussions on NATO collective defense now involve brigades, divisions, and corps in terms of movement and supply. This year's Defender-Europe exercise will see a division-sized allied unit gather on NATO's eastern flank for the first time.

SACEUR's biggest challenge in the coming years will be persuading ally nations, still hesitant about defense funding, to staff, equip, and train together on a larger scale in NATO's new rapid response structure. Speaking before the U.S. Congress on April 10, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe stated that Russia has been able to restore its army's combat capability faster than initially estimated, with its army now 15 percent larger than it was on February 24, 2022.

General Cavoli is described as a man with no illusions about either the time available for strengthening NATO's collective defense or the scale of the task at hand. "Strong. Focused. The kind of man you want on your side. Fortunately, he is on our side. Just the SACEUR we need," said one top figure in Estonian security diplomacy.