OLD FRIENDS, FRESH ALLIES ⟩ Minister of Defense Pål Jonson Discusses Sweden's NATO Journey and Ukraine Aid Balance

We had the advantage of being able to practice for a while since we were in a pre-accession status. We talked extensively with Finland. They pointed out that three things are particularly confusing.

First is information—naturally, a lot of information comes from the defense alliance through various emails, and we are expected to respond in ways that were not required before joining.

Second is intensity. NATO is currently undergoing its most transformative period since the end of the Cold War with new capabilities for deterrence and defense and new regional plans. So, of course, it is intense work.

Third, and perhaps most important, is thinking about identity—that we are now part of NATO and have a responsibility to NATO. We are not necessarily defending Sweden within Sweden anymore; we are defending Sweden with our allies elsewhere if the worst happens. However, our focus remains on deterrence.

But identity, information, and intensity are the lessons we are working on. Overall, I must say that integration has gone very well so far.

Interviewer: How are the preparations going for deploying a battalion to Latvia next year and participating in air policing?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: We have tasked the armed forces with planning to contribute to the pre-deployed ground forces in Latvia (FLF). We are forming a reduced battalion based on the P 7 Armored Regiment in Skåne. Recruitment is going very well, with a lot of interest. We are doing this in close cooperation with Denmark, which is currently on-site, and we will do it on a rotational basis.

The Prime Minister [Ulf Kristersson] said a year and a half ago that we intend to contribute to NATO's forward presence in the Baltic States, and I am pleased that we have found a good place to do this.

We are also ready to contribute to NATO's permanent naval forces and air policing. We will need to return to these issues.

We have also tasked the armed forces with informing NATO about our entire wartime organization, which includes our military resources on land, in the air, and at sea, thus naturally contributing to the defense alliance.

Interviewer: NATO has told Sweden that the country must be ready to act as an operational area, and for that, the railway situation needs to be improved. However, there have been issues this year with keeping the crucial Malmbanan railway operational in Northern Sweden. How well are the plans to upgrade the railway to NATO standards coming along?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: My colleague, Infrastructure Minister Andreas Carlson, visited Boden [in Northern Sweden] and presented investments in the Malmbanan from Kiruna to Narvik.

There are three major military-geographical routes needed to move resources and capabilities within the country, but it's clear that movement between Sweden and Norway will also be crucial, both in the Narvik area and from Trondheim to Östersund and the Svealandi region.

We plan to present the strengthened infrastructure in the defense policy bill to be submitted to Parliament this fall. This will naturally take into account military mobility needs and readiness with a strengthened infrastructure in a more concrete way than before. This is part of being a NATO member.

Additionally, we know that we will receive new military capability targets from NATO during the fall, which we will work towards and integrate into our future defense plan.

We will present the defense plan to Parliament in the fall, aiming to increase defense spending from the current 2.2 percent of GDP to 2.6 percent by 2028, accompanied by substantial economic resources.

The defense commission, comprising representatives from all parliamentary parties, proposed in April to increase the defense budget by nearly 53 billion SEK (4.7 billion euros) by 2030. Where will this money come from?

There is a fair amount of mathematics involved because investments in both civil and military defense are expected to grow by a total of 211 billion SEK (18.6 billion euros) between 2025 and 2030. Significant investments are needed in the coming years, which is essential after decades of underfunding. All eight parties support this.

There are different views on how to finance this. We campaigned on prioritizing internal and external security and have doubled the military defense budget from 2020 to 2024 by setting priorities. However, I know some of the opposition want to raise taxes and other measures. But the principle is that each government has an obligation to find funding within a balanced budget. That's our view on the matter.

But I am pleased that all eight parties support this significant boost in armaments ahead of us.

Interviewer: What is your position on the Social Democrats' proposal to impose an extraordinary tax to fund defense?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: We do not believe it is the right time to increase the tax burden. There are concerns about how this might affect economic growth, so we do not see it as the right approach.

The defense commission also proposed that by 2030, four brigades should be equipped. The armed forces have indicated that this might not be possible due to a lack of equipment. Do you consider this goal realistic?

Within the economic framework the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces had to operate in, which was narrower than the defense commission's proposal, he highlighted that it was more important to have two brigades ready rather than aiming for four by 2030.

The defense commission adds considerable investments in equipment, making it possible to achieve this goal by 2030. Without these economic resources, it would be impossible, but with the increased financial contribution, the armed forces are now working to see if it can be done.

All eight parties understand that the security situation is very serious, and naturally, all eight parties want us to build up our brigades as quickly as possible.

Interviewer: How difficult has it been to balance aiding Ukraine with ensuring sufficient equipment, such as tanks, for Sweden's defense forces?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: The armed forces have been working intensively for the past two years. On one hand, the deteriorating security situation means that the armed forces are currently making adjustments in readiness, moving military resources and capabilities within the country because there are much higher requirements for monitoring the external environment.

At the same time, we have taken on significant commitments to send defense equipment to Ukraine, worth 30 billion SEK (the interview was conducted before Sweden announced a new aid package worth 13.3 billion SEK), and extensive training for Ukrainian soldiers.

So, of course, this affects development, and I am aware of that, but we have said that supporting Ukraine is crucial because it is an investment in our own security. Therefore, it is a deliberate choice. And we have always sent military equipment in consultation with the armed forces, mostly based on their recommendations.

We will continue to support Ukraine because if Russia were to win this terrible war, we would face much greater security problems than we do now. Supporting Ukraine is not charity; it is also part of investing in our future.

Interviewer: What do you think of Estonia's proposal that all supporting countries should contribute 0.25 percent of their GDP to aid Ukraine?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: I don't know if we have taken an official position, but we ourselves exceed that level, so I welcome all initiatives to help Ukraine. We also welcomed the Czech initiative [for ammunition procurement] and the German initiative [to find air defense systems], regarding the possibility of purchasing military equipment from outside Europe.

Sweden, along with other countries, has been a leader in advocating that the EU should be open to buying military equipment not only from EU countries but also from outside because for Ukraine, it doesn't matter where the equipment comes from as long as it is effective.

Interviewer: What is Sweden's position on Emmanuel Macron's proposal not to rule out the deployment of Western soldiers in Ukraine?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: I am not aware of any specific proposal being on the agenda to take a position on. What we are doing is training soldiers in Lithuania, Germany, and the UK as part of Operation Interflex. And we have done this in Sweden and are increasing the training of Ukrainian soldiers.

We are currently in a phase where we believe Ukraine needs to mobilize more soldiers, and the Rada has already taken measures to do so. Therefore, we need to increase training.

Interviewer: In June, Parliament is expected to vote on the Swedish-US Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) signed last winter. Public debate has focused on the fact that the agreement does not include a specific ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons on Swedish soil. Why was this not included?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: Let me be specific. This agreement is based on respect for Sweden's sovereignty, respect for Swedish laws, Sweden's international obligations, and Sweden's consent. As the agreement states, the US is always obliged to inform us before bringing anything here—what military equipment is being brought, how much, and when—because it depends on Sweden's consent.

And Sweden's position is expressed in the NATO framework and is exactly the same in the DCA framework.

Like other Nordic countries, we see no need or reason for permanent bases or nuclear weapons on Swedish territory, and we have expressed this in the framework. Finland has not written this into its DCA either, and it is very clear that it is based on consent.

Let me also state clearly that as a NATO ally, we support NATO's reliance on both conventional and nuclear deterrence, and we expressed this when joining NATO.

Interviewer: Sweden has not been at war for centuries. Now, there is much talk about the possibility of war. How has this affected society?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: We have a rather comprehensive legacy of total defense and had quite strong defense during the Cold War. We had, as it was called, armed neutrality or armed military non-alignment. Then many quickly took the so-called peace dividend. Now, the work has begun to build up a stronger total defense.

Today, there is much greater awareness in Swedish society than five years ago about the risks and vulnerabilities we face and, of course, awareness of how Russia is acting in Ukraine. But it's not just about full-scale invasion—we saw it in 2014 [in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine], we saw it in 2008 in Georgia, and we see repeatedly that Russia poses a threat to the entire region and the Euro-Atlantic area.

Our goal is, of course, to continue living in peace, strengthen NATO, and keep it strong. We have good defense capabilities and good deterrence capabilities, and we are investing in our defense capabilities.

Interviewer: How likely do you think it is that sabotage acts similar to Nord Stream will be repeated?

H.E. Mr. Pal Jonson: Over time, we have been the target of Russian disinformation, propaganda, cyberattacks, and cyber espionage, and we are working intensively and taking measures to build greater resilience against this.

The government, in office for a year and a half, has a new security council. For the first time in 75 years, we have a Minister of Civil Defense dealing with resilience and cybersecurity. We also have a relatively new psychological defense agency. So we are taking measures.

At the same time, I can admit that Russia continues hybrid activities in the gray area between full peace and full war, using covert or deniable methods. Therefore, we must have a whole-of-government or whole-of-society approach to reduce Russia's opportunities to do so.