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NATO DEFENSE PLANS IN ACTION ⟩ Baltic States and Poland Fortify Borders to Execute Alliance's New Deterrence by Denial Concept

Photo: Kaitsevägi
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As part of the updated NATO Baltic defense plans, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland are embarking on extensive efforts to bolster their border defenses.

At the NATO Madrid Summit, allies agreed to review the Alliance's Baltic defense plans, switching from what was called "deterrence by punishment" to the "deterrence by denial" concept. This proactive stance follows Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas's 2022 revelation that NATO's previous plan allowed Russian forces to enter the Baltic states, with NATO countering only six months later. This somewhat simplified description by Kaja Kallas incited public concern among Baltic nations, prompting a reevaluation of their defense strategies.

Lithuania is set to spend €380 million on a military defense zone along its borders with Belarus and Russia. This proactive approach mirrors Poland's ambitious "Eastern Shield" project, also known as the "Tusk Line" in Polish media, which includes a €2.4 billion investment to bolster Poland's eastern border. These defenses aim to robustly deter potential threats by 2028, with Poland's new liberal government criticizing the previous conservative administration for inadequate border fencing.

An Estonian Border Guard stands next to the newly built border fence on the southeastern border with Russia.
An Estonian Border Guard stands next to the newly built border fence on the southeastern border with Russia. Photo: Arvo Meeks/Lõuna-Eesti PM/Scanpix Baltics

Defending Every Inch

Latvia's new security strategy mandates that the armed forces protect the nation's territory and civilians "from the first centimeter." In American press, the concept is coined by President Joe Biden as "defending every inch of NATO." This slogan sums up what is new about NATO's updated Baltic defense plan—to deter Russian aggression, NATO deploys vast troops to the Baltics early in a crisis to shape the environment head-on.

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds has approved a €303 million military anti-mobility plan for the Latvian-Russian border to be executed within five years. Confidential details of the plan include converting cross-border roads with Russia into tank barriers and creating tank traps from drainage ditches. Rapid fortification measures also involve storing explosives and obstacles at the border for quick deployment and preparing to disable key transport routes to hinder enemy advances.

Six Hundred Bunkers

The military barrier along Latvia's eastern border will span a 20-kilometer-wide zone, with €25 million allocated for this year alone. Procurement contracts, including both local and imported materials, are already in place.

For Estonia, the defense zone is planned to extend up to 40 kilometers deep from the eastern border and cover about 100 kilometers in length. The zone will span the entire land border with Russia, from Narva-Jõesuu to Lake Peipus and from Lake Pihkva to the Latvian border.

When building military defensive infrastructure for infantry, the Baltic States draw from their experience during and after WWII, when up to 70,000 Baltic partisans, the so-called Forest Brothers, fought against the Soviet occupation. The photo shows a bunker used by Estonian Forest Brothers from the post-WWII era at Ennuksemäe in Southern Estonia. Today, the bunker is a popular tourist destination.
When building military defensive infrastructure for infantry, the Baltic States draw from their experience during and after WWII, when up to 70,000 Baltic partisans, the so-called Forest Brothers, fought against the Soviet occupation. The photo shows a bunker used by Estonian Forest Brothers from the post-WWII era at Ennuksemäe in Southern Estonia. Today, the bunker is a popular tourist destination. Photo: Elmo Riig

Concrete or Plastic?

Estonia’s border defense strategy involves complex measures encompassing defensive support points, including up to 600 bunkers for infantry, and storage areas for fortification elements such as dragon's teeth and barbed wire, to be deployed at support points in case of military threats. All three Baltic nations and Poland have coordinated their border defense designs.

The 600 Estonian infantry bunkers planned for the eastern border are currently in the design phase, based on requirements provided by infantry units. This will be followed by testing in polygon conditions to ensure protective properties (withstanding a 152mm shell hit) and user-friendliness.

Both concrete and plastic bunker models are being tested. Estonia aims to have bunkers in place before any conflict arises, ensuring that infantry units do not have to construct them during a crisis. Pre-established bunkers provide more force protection and cause less environmental harm, as construction works are done in peacetime and not hastily.

This is what a Ukrainian anti-tank trench looks like.
This is what a Ukrainian anti-tank trench looks like. Photo: Juri Larin

In recent years, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have faced migration used as a weapon, prompting the construction of border fences to fend off migrants forcibly pushed over the border by Russian or Belarusian authorities. Estonia is also halfway through building a border fence. However, fences suitable for protection against illegal immigrants are almost useless when it comes to defending against a military assault.

For Estonia, this is the third attempt to establish a military defensive line against Russia. After the War of Independence (1918-1920), a wartime defensive line with trenches, bunkers, and barbed wire. However, it fell into disuse, and materials were repurposed by locals. The line spanned 15–20 kilometers.

The plan resurfaced in 1932, aiming to establish a defense zone in Narva and Petseri County, similar to the current plan. Now, as Estonia moves forward with its defense strategy, the coordinated effort with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland reflects a unified front to ensure that the new NATO defense plan for the Baltics is not just a political deterrent, but a military one.

Old Controversies Resurface

In Latvia, the border defense plans have sparked controversy, particularly regarding the potential use of infantry mines. Latvia remains committed to the Ottawa Convention, banning anti-personnel mines, and any discussion of withdrawing from this treaty has led to public and political debate. Defense Minister Sprūds emphasized that minefields would not be created during peacetime, reassuring residents that mobility-restricting measures would not disrupt daily life.

Who would have guessed that the main weapon in the new Baltic military cooperation project would be an excavator? Pictured is an Estonian Defense Forces engineering tank.
Who would have guessed that the main weapon in the new Baltic military cooperation project would be an excavator? Pictured is an Estonian Defense Forces engineering tank. Photo: Kaitsevägi

Local businesses in these countries stand to benefit from orders for various barriers under the project. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs underscored the importance of communicating with local residents, asserting that while NATO allies protect Latvia, the Baltic states must also bolster their defenses.

As Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland fortify their borders, they aim to ensure the rapid deployment of obstacles and prepare critical infrastructure for potential demolition. Environmental considerations, such as managing roadside trees and limiting clear-cutting, are also being taken into account. Mines, as a last resort, would only be deployed in immediate wartime scenarios.

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