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MIXED RESOLVE ⟩ Survey Highlights Europe's Hawks and Doves on Ukraine Conflict

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrive for a joint news briefing, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine July 2, 2024. Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko
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Despite widespread support for supplying arms, Europeans show a marked reluctance to commit troops to the Ukrainian frontlines.

A survey published on July 3 by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) unveils a continent divided between hawkish and dovish nations. While Ukraine's resilience remains steadfast, European countries are split on the path to resolution.

The survey reveals that hawkish nations like the United Kingdom, Poland, and Estonia champion Ukraine's fight for sovereignty, whereas dovish countries such as Greece and Italy advocate for immediate peace negotiations, reflecting a complex geopolitical tapestry as the war endures.

Ukraine Stands Firm

Despite the harrowing toll of the war, Ukrainians maintain an indomitable spirit. According to the ECFR survey, 58% of Ukrainians still believe in victory, underscoring their resilience amidst widespread destruction and displacement. This unwavering confidence is bolstered by a strong trust in President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian military.

On the European front, there is significant support for arming Ukraine. However, the consensus fractures when envisioning the endgame of this conflict. While Ukrainians see increased arms as a pathway to victory and view EU and NATO memberships as well-earned rewards, Europeans are more inclined to perceive these memberships as elements of a broader peace negotiation.

Diverging Views on Resolution

The survey exposes a critical rift within Europe regarding the war's resolution. Nations like Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Sweden, forming the "Justice camp," advocate for Ukraine's efforts to reclaim its territories. In contrast, Greece, Bulgaria, and Italy, constituting the "Peace camp," push for immediate negotiations to end the conflict, emphasizing diplomacy over continued warfare.

This divide extends to the question of Ukraine's EU membership. Proponents of Ukraine's accession are primarily from so-called hawkish nations and some swing states, while skepticism prevails in dovish countries and key swing states such as Germany and the Czech Republic. Cultural affiliations and security concerns heavily influence these stances, reflecting broader geopolitical anxieties.

Widespread Support of Arms Supply

Despite widespread support for supplying arms, Europeans show a marked reluctance to commit troops to the Ukrainian frontlines. "Europeans are strongly inclined against sending troops to Ukraine. This is true even in the countries that are most hawkish about the war," ECFR's Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard stated in their policy brief.

The ECFR report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in May 2024 in 15 countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The total number of respondents was 19,566.

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