MEETING THE 85% SHORTFALL ⟩ Western Arms Industry Weighs Options in Ukraine

Photo: Rheinmetall

Jaanus PiirsaluWar Correspondent at Postimees

3rd July 2024, 15:06

Ukraine's defense industry, developing its own ballistic missiles, can still only meet a small fraction (10-15%) of the military's needs during the war.

Ukraine's defense industry, developing its own ballistic missiles, can only meet a small fraction of the military's needs during the war, and it is unlikely that this situation will significantly improve.

In response to Russian missile attacks, such as those that struck Kyiv and its environs in early January, Ukraine's defense industry is moving its operations underground. One of Russia's fastest ballistic missiles, the Kinzhal, hit a major arms factory during a working shift, resulting in the deaths of dozens of workers.

Following the reduction of Western military aid last winter and spring, Ukraine declared its intention to develop its defense industry as much as possible under wartime conditions, with a particular focus on its ammunition industry.

Emphasis on Self-Reliance

"One basis for resilience is that we must rely more on our own defense industry," emphasized Anatoli Amelin, founder of the Future Institute, one of Ukraine's largest think tanks, and a developer of private defense industry projects. "The production of certain types of weapons, such as ammunition, has increased many times over during the war. It is far from what we need, but better than nothing."

The Ukrainian army currently relies heavily on military aid from Western allies, though not entirely. "Domestic production accounts for 10-15 percent of the Ukrainian army's needs; Ukraine purchases about 25 percent of the weaponry itself. The rest is all Western aid," said Valentyn Badrak, who heads a Kyiv think tank researching the army's changing needs. Badrak, one of the foremost experts on Ukraine's defense industry, has advised the Ministry of Defense for years.

A Ukrainian serviceman squats on a Ukrainian produced 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine. September 13, 2023. Photo: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO/REUTERS

Arms Require Protection Too

Over the past two years, Ukraine has received tens of billions of euros in military aid from the West. Of Ukraine's current defense budget of 37 billion euros, 5.5 billion euros is spent on purchasing weapons, said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the defense industry, in April. For example, it is known that Ukraine is purchasing tracked self-propelled howitzers, Krab, from Poland for 600 million euros. The lion's share of defense spending, 27.5 billion euros, goes to paying military personnel.

We spoke with two experts and a former senior official from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, who wished to remain anonymous, about the possibilities of developing the defense industry under wartime conditions.

The main challenge for Ukraine's defense industry is the physical protection of its production facilities. The entire territory of Ukraine is within the range of Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, and the locations of all state-owned military factories are known to Russia. Only new facilities can be flexible in terms of location. "It takes time to create underground production sites or provide reinforced concrete protection for buildings," said the former Ministry of Defense official.

Ukrainian tank crews were training on a German-produced Leopard 2A6 tank in Donetsk, Ukraine, on May 12, 2024. The production cycle of a Leopard tank lasts 12-18 months. Photo: VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS

Chronic Shortage of Ammo

The tragedy at the weapons factory in January made it clear that continuing production at existing locations is impractical. Ukraine simply does not have the resources to provide air defense for all its military factories.

At the end of last year, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Gavrilyuk stated in an interview that the Ukrainian army would need around 2.6 million artillery shells this year. According to him, the Americans would secure one million shells, and the European Union countries would provide another million. Even if the US and the EU supply two million shells between them — which is unlikely given the current situation — Ukraine still needs to produce or purchase around 600,000 shells.

Ukraine currently produces 152-millimeter shells compatible with Soviet-era howitzers, but Badrak says these quantities are not large. He estimates that the maximum amount Ukraine could produce under current conditions is about 250,000 to 300,000 shells per year. "The shortage is in gunpowder and other necessary components," Badrak said. "Cooperation is a critical precondition for boosting shell production," added the former Ministry of Defense official.

Western defense industries have significant plans with Ukraine.

The German company Rheinmetall has been considering producing Fuchs armored vehicles in Ukraine, in addition to ammunition. Some sources claim that Ukraine is keen for Rheinmetall to produce Leopard tanks. However, the feasibility of such production during wartime remains uncertain. While the production of armored vehicles can be concealed, tank construction is more complex and challenging to hide due to the extensive technological processes required.

Even if the Germans agreed to build tanks in Ukraine, setting up production from scratch would take years. Additionally, the production cycle for a tank is very long. "The production cycle of a modern tank is 15-18 months," said Valentyn Badrak, an expert on the defense industry and military technology. "If new tanks were ordered right now, it would take a very long time before they were handed over to our army. By 2026, when the tanks are ready, Ukraine might no longer exist."

Among major Western defense companies, Britain's BAE Systems has expressed intentions to start cooperation projects in Ukraine, planning to open a factory soon to repair the 105 mm howitzers provided by the UK.

The most concrete plans so far come from Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar, which promised this winter to open a production facility near Kyiv within 12 months, employing 500 workers by spring 2025 at the latest. The Turks have promised to produce their famous Bayraktar TB2 or TB3 attack drones there. Ukrainians, however, want them to produce their newer Akıncı drones, which can carry cruise missiles with a range of 250 kilometers.

Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar plans to open a factory in Ukraine by spring 2025 Photo: Ahmed Deeb/dpa/picture-alliance

Terms

defense industry