HYBRID DEFENSE ON STEROIDS ⟩ Estonia's New Government Decides to Militarize Border Guard in Response to Recent Russian Harassment

Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

20th July 2024, 15:54

In a newly completed coalition agreement, Estonia's new Prime Minister Kristen Michal's (Reform Party) government promises to enhance the Police and Border Guard Board's (PPA) ability to counter hybrid attacks, including acquiring anti-tank weapons.

Like many of Russia's neighboring states, Estonia has recently faced hybrid harassment at its eastern border. In December 2023, Russia attempted to force illegal immigrants across the border. In May, the Russian Border Guard (FSB) stole Estonia’s navigation buoys marking the state border on the Narva River.

Russia's Hybrid Escalation

Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets (Social Democratic Party) says the initiative to equip border guard with anti-tank weapon systems is a political one. Following the May incident, Estonian authorities were scrutinized for not responding more forcefully. The Estonian Border Guard documented the FSB buoy theft and released the video but refrained from using force, which proved wise as any escalation would have played into the FSB’s operational aims. The act was clearly provocative.

On the night of May 23, the Russian Border Guard (FSB) stole Estonia's navigation buoys marking the state border line on the Narva River. Photo: Politsei- ja piirivalveamet

Minister Läänemets does not directly link the decision to acquire anti-tank weaponry to the May 23 incident but rather to the broader need to counter Russia's recent escalations in its hybrid war against Europe.

The wartime role of the Estonian Police and Border Guard has been a long-standing topic of discussion in Estonia. Dissatisfied with the progress on border defense, Läänemets took the political initiative to expedite matters with his anti-tank capability proposal.

Specific anti-tank systems have not yet been designated, but according to Virko Luide, head of the Police and Border Guard’s Crisis Readiness Bureau, they aim to purchase smaller systems. The Estonian Defense Forces currently use Carl-Gustaf M4 and Instalaza C90 as their smallest anti-tank systems, costing around 5,000 euros and 15,000 euros per piece, respectively.

Paramilitary Border Guard

Minister Läänemets emphasizes that the initiative does not signify a return to a militarized border guard but rather a "semi-militarization." "We are not preparing the border guard to fight infantry fighting vehicles or tanks, but they should be able to stop a group of armored vehicles. Currently, the Estonian border guard would just watch with their rifles as armored vehicles cross the border."

The minister's reluctance to label the reform as militarization may stem from the fact that reestablishing a military border guard has been a key defense policy promise of Estonia's far-right Estonian Conservative Popular Party (EKRE), while Läänemets leads their main political opponents, the Social Democratic Party.

Estonian Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets (Social Democratic Party) inspecting the state border in southeastern Estonia. Photo: Arvo Meeks

Before 2000, Estonia had a militarized border guard with conscripts. In 2000, border guard switched to a fully professional service. Previously, the border guard had machine guns and grenade launchers, but these were transferred to the Defense Forces as they went unused.

Enhanced Hybrid Defense Posture

The main advantage of the initiative is the increased response speed of Estonian authorities in responding to sudden smaller scale attacks. Currently, if the PPA needs to use anti-tank systems to stop an armored vehicle, they must first seek government approval to use the Defense Forces, who then plan the operation and deploy their unit. This process takes valuable time in situations where terrorists or foreign soldiers pose an immediate threat, such as attempting to take over important infrastructure in border city Narva.

Estonia’s approach could serve as an example for other NATO nations, including Norway, which struggles to defend the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean against Russian hybrid provocations. The international treaty governing the archipelago prohibits permanent military bases, so Norway might consider equipping its border guards with military-grade weaponry to protect its sovereignty against future Russian provocations.

Hybrid threats may require responding institutions to “hybridize” by adopting more powerful weapon systems to deter or respond to gray-area threats without deploying military forces.

The militarization of the Estonian border guard may also serve as a deterrent against the Russian border guard, making them rethink future hybrid actions at the border. At the same time, it raises public expectations for the border guard to assert itself during future hybrid attacks. As the public scrutiny following the May 23 incident on the Narva River demonstrated, these expectations must be carefully managed.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal's government has decided to invest an additional 1 billion euros in defense to replenish ammunition stocks, create a multi-layered air defense system, and bolster border security. Most of this funding will be acquired through significant tax increases (income tax, VAT). The new government has decided to label the tax increase package as a 'defense tax'.

Terms

Hybrid War