ENDURING AMMUNITION DEFICIT ⟩ Ukrainian General Urges Allies to Donate Ammo Production Lines

According to Baranov, the U.S. is the only country capable of adequately supplying the Ukrainian army with shells, as they possess the largest stockpile and production capacity for 155mm shells in the world.

General Baranov, at 43 one of Ukraine's youngest generals, had his own theory about why the Americans are not supplying enough shells. Given the sensitivity of the topic, he stressed that this was strictly his personal view.

“Personally, it seems to me that the Americans are controlling the intensity of the war by the amount of ammunition they supply us,” said Baranov, who led Ukraine’s artillery and rocket forces until this spring. He was promoted to brigadier general exactly a year ago at the age of 42.

"To be frank, the European Union's promise of a million shells amounts to almost nothing," the general added.

The European Union has promised a million artillery shells to Ukraine for over a year and a half but has yet to deliver on this commitment. “We are buying time for Europe right now,” Baranov expressed his frustration at the EU’s inability to support Ukraine. “In a minimum of two years, Russia will have an army of 1.5 million men. By then, we won't be able to hold them back.”

Russia Advancing Closer to Pokrovsk

Never in the two-and-a-half-year-long war has one side maintained the initiative as the Russian army does now. This advantage stems from their overwhelming manpower, at least double that of Ukraine, and a four- to five-fold superiority in artillery shells, in addition to Russia's air dominance and their ability to catch up in intelligence, command, and drone technology.

Despite continuous broad-front attacks in Donetsk region for ten months, the Russian army has failed to break through Ukrainian defenses. Yet, they are slowly advancing on all fronts in Donetsk, nearing three critical cities for Ukrainian defense—Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove—and approaching the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk, near the Dnipropetrovsk region border.

Renowned Ukrainian military expert, retired Colonel Konstantin Mashovets, believes Russian forces may break through to Pokrovsk by the end of this month. For the Ukrainian army, the arrival of Russian forces at Pokrovsk would create severe logistical challenges for supplying units in the Donetsk region.

Currently, the front line is 16 kilometers from Pokrovsk. Over the past ten months, the Russian advance in this direction has been the fastest: last October, Russian units were still 75 kilometers from Pokrovsk, meaning they have advanced 60 kilometers in ten months.

Brigadier General Baranov did not share the common belief that the Russian army, attacking broadly for ten months, would soon be exhausted, nor that their momentum would halt with the arrival of autumn rains and mud.

“Autumn and mud won’t stop them. They’re not currently attacking with heavy equipment; they’re using infantry, drones, and artillery,” Baranov stated. “They won’t run out of steam, they have immense resources.”

Baranov emphasized that Russia retains the ability to leverage economies of scale, producing cheaply and in large quantities. “We need weapons that can neutralize their scale,” said the brigadier general. “For two years, those weapons [of scale] were artillery. Now I think that must be drones.”

The Russian army's ability to press forward is further enhanced by the increasing production of glide bombs (KAB) dropped from aircraft. Weighing between 250 to 1500 kilograms, these bombs are currently the most effective weapon for the Russian army in destroying Ukrainian defensive positions. On average, the Russian army now drops 100–120 glide bombs daily on the front. “Russian KABs greatly demoralize our soldiers,” said a staff officer of a Ukrainian battalion.

“Our soldiers see that we have nothing to counter the KABs,” Baranov noted. “Patriot [air defense] systems are urgently needed not only to protect cities but also to shield our soldiers on the front lines from KAB-carrying aircraft.”

Considering Russia's current resource dominance, the Ukrainian army’s resistance is heroic, but such gritty fighting has its downsides. Internal tensions within the Ukrainian army have risen to new heights during this war.

Following the adoption of Ukraine’s new mobilization law, authorities have gathered fresh data on over four million potential conscripts in two months. Publicly, Ukraine is currently mobilizing 30,000 men per month, roughly equal to the number Russia is recruiting each month.

Few Reinforcements Reach Units

However, few of the mobilized actually reach combat units. One exhausted battalion officer claimed that they hadn’t received a single new man in months. Due to the shortage of soldiers, it’s not uncommon for a platoon-sized unit (30-32 men) to defend kilometers of front line. Although they receive reinforcements during offensives, the shortage of men remains critical in some areas.

The Ukrainian military leadership prefers to form new brigades from mobilized soldiers, but there is insufficient weaponry for these units. This policy has caused discontent among brigades that have been fighting on the front lines for extended periods, as soldiers and officers do not understand why new recruits are not reinforcing the depleted front-line brigades.

“My personal opinion is that new brigades are being formed from mobilized soldiers to obtain weapons from Europe and allies for these brigades,” Brigadier General Baranov said.

According to him, increased mobilization is of little use if there are not enough shells on the front lines.

“We are getting new soldiers. But it’s of little use if we don’t have shells, mines, if we can’t conduct counter-battery work,” Baranov stated. “It would simply mean we are expending our soldiers. We won’t do that.”

The former artillery chief of the Ukrainian army was convinced that the only long-term solution to Ukraine’s ammunition problem is to start mass-producing shells and mines domestically. “Until Ukraine can do this, nothing will change regarding shells, nothing will change in the war,” he asserted.

Ukraine has attempted to start producing the most needed 155mm shells during the war but has not yet succeeded.

General Baranov has a specific request for Ukraine’s allies, providing a hint at the obstacles to domestic shell production. “Give us the old production lines, and we will start making shells ourselves,” Baranov said. He suggested that if the European Union cannot increase its own production, it could transfer unused shell production lines to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army faces another serious and growing problem in addition to ammunition shortages. Most of their artillery systems are Soviet-era, using primarily 152mm shells, whose global supplies are dwindling, excluding Russia, North Korea, and China. Ukraine has already made the principled decision to switch to Western artillery systems and, consequently, to 155mm shells.

Too Many Systems Remain Idle

Western allies have provided Ukraine with nearly a thousand artillery systems during the war: howitzers, cannons, and self-propelled guns. In addition to supplying shells, these weapons must also be maintained, and this is becoming increasingly problematic.

“We also have issues with keeping many Western weapons operational due to a shortage of spare parts,” General Baranov said.

The Ukrainians do not have problems with the barrels but with smaller spare parts needed to maintain weapons subjected to much more intensive use than expected. For example, it’s no secret on the front lines that many of the powerful Krab self-propelled guns received from Poland are idle because spare parts supply has not been resolved.

Regarding the Ukrainian army's prospects in the near future, Brigadier General Baranov was unequivocal: “With the current level of allied military aid, any kind of counteroffensive on our part is unrealistic.”