A couple of decades ago, Hollywood was flooded with sci-fi dystopias depicting future police states, where members of society were controlled by technologies that seemed supernatural at the time. Now, many of these technologies have been adopted, not only in authoritarian China, but also in the free West.
In Steven Spielberg’s 2002 blockbuster Minority Report, a futuristic system known as Precrime is employed to identify suspects before they commit any wrongdoing. Hollywood icon Tom Cruise, portraying a police officer, is assisted by a psychic whose extraordinary abilities enable law enforcement to apprehend criminals prior to their crimes.
In reality, policing has edged closer to this sci-fi vision—even without the aid of clairvoyants. Both the Los Angeles and Chicago police departments have adopted an algorithmic tool called PredPol, which analyzes regional crime data to predict where offenses are most likely to occur. Introduced in 2022, PredPol, unlike the Precrime system in Spielberg’s film, doesn’t focus on specific individuals. However, much like Precrime, it enables police to concentrate their efforts on areas with a high probability of criminal activity in the near future.
In 2020, the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) embarked on a similar future-prediction initiative under the IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) program. This project sought to develop a system capable of forecasting major societal events. Remarkably, the platform bore even stronger parallels to the vision seen in Minority Report, as it integrated not only machine learning and artificial intelligence but also human inputs, allowing individuals to provide additional insights to complement the machine’s predictions.
PredPol’s algorithm, developed by social scientists at the University of Chicago, uses data from violent and property crime reports, analyzing patterns across time and geography to more accurately predict future criminal activity. It uncovers trends that help forecast where crimes are most likely to occur, much like a crystal ball for urban policing.
In director Paul Verhoeven’s iconic 1987 dystopian RoboCop (starring Peter Weller) a severely injured police officer is resurrected as an unstoppable, bulletproof cyborg endowed with superhuman strength. While patrolling cyborgs aren’t expected to become a reality anytime soon, research institutions like DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) have long been developing exoskeletons—mechanical suits designed to enhance human strength and endurance. However, their application in law enforcement remains distant. Nonetheless, the film’s vision of automated targeting systems and seamless connections to central databases has already become part of our present.
An automated, self-targeting, drone-defense robot is now being tested on Boston Dynamics' Spot robot dog platform. Today, around 1,000 robot dogs—most of them unarmed—are already deployed in both security and industrial sectors. These machines represent an evolution of the early bomb-disposal robots, first used in 1972 when British Lieutenant Colonel Peter Miller developed them in response to a series of bombings in Northern Ireland. What once seemed like sci-fi fantasy is becoming an operational reality, as even the most futuristic concepts inch closer to everyday use.
In Ridley Scott's sci-fi thriller Blade Runner (1982), starring the legendary Harrison Ford, detectives hunting replicants—bioengineered beings—used a device to identify suspects by tracking their breathing, heart rate, iris scans, and other external characteristics to distinguish between humans and hybrids. Today, law enforcement agencies around the world widely employ biometric tools, such as facial recognition and iris scanning, to identify suspects and individuals.
In the 1993 action movie Demolition Man, starring Sylvester Stallone, a hyper-regulated future society is depicted where law enforcement leans heavily on automated systems. What once seemed like far-fetched science fiction at the time of the film’s release is now edging closer to reality. Police drones, intended to assist or even replace human officers, are no longer a futuristic fantasy—they are already being deployed in pilot projects across Sweden and the Netherlands, with Estonia poised to adopt similar technology.
Drones can be invaluable in surveillance and traffic monitoring, assisting police officers in locating a suspect or maintaining order in public spaces. However, they don’t operate autonomously; they are piloted by humans from a control center.
In Demolition Man, the city of San Angeles features an automated system of moral oversight. Citizens would receive automatic fines for swearing in public. Similarly, in Singapore, artificial intelligence and surveillance systems are used to fine citizens for offenses like littering or jaywalking. A new AI-based system called Balefire is also in development, designed to automatically detect people smoking in prohibited areas.
Arnold Schwarzenegger's superstar status was cemented with his leading role in the 1990 movie Total Recall, where synthetic police officers patrol the streets to maintain order. Autonomous robots ensuring public safety are now a reality. For instance, Dubai employs robotic security guards that assist those in need, provide information, and monitor their surroundings.
In one memorable scene, secret agent Carl Hauser (played by Schwarzenegger) uses a mask of an overweight woman to evade his pursuers. Today, both criminals and law enforcement have moved beyond physical masks, with the rise of digital disguises enabled by deepfake technology offering even greater possibilities for deception and concealment.
The company Knightscope has pioneered autonomous security robots for public spaces like shopping malls, with models such as the K5. These machines, with their sleek, cylindrical design, evoke images of household appliances or even the iconic R2-D2 from George Lucas's Star Wars series.
In Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight (2008), billionaire industrialist and security innovator Bruce Wayne—better known as Batman—leverages cutting-edge technology developed by his company to counter Gotham City’s broken law enforcement system.
One of his most remarkable tools is an advanced sonar system that allows him to peer through walls, generating a real-time 3D map of a skyscraper taken over by the villainous Joker. This technology provides a precise, all-encompassing view of every room, object, and individual within the building. What once seemed like pure science fiction is rapidly becoming a reality. Today, advanced systems, including tomography technologies, are being tested and deployed, allowing special forces to capture vital visual information in high-stakes situations like hostage crises—without ever having to physically enter the space.
The Estonian Police are on the verge of adopting a muon tomography system capable of remotely generating detailed 3D images of vehicles passing through border control points, revealing both living and non-living objects within. These innovations greatly enhance safety and operational efficiency, yet they possess an eerie quality, as technology already exists that allows SWAT teams to see through building walls before entering a room.
In democratic societies, even highly invasive technologies can be regulated to prevent arbitrary use by authorities, ensuring adherence to agreed-upon restrictions. However, the relationship between police and the public is not without tension in all democracies.
After the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the role and attitude of the police in the United States became more militarized, exacerbating longstanding issues such as racial bias within law enforcement. Following the violent activism of the Black Lives Matter movement in U.S. cities and the accompanying calls to "Defund the Police," many law enforcement agencies have had to reevaluate their roles and approaches and to make use of technology such as bodycams to further transparency and build trust.
Western law enforcement agencies for some years now widely use body cameras. In James Cameron's 1986 blockbuster Aliens, U.S. Marines fighting extraterrestrial creatures on another planet use helmet-mounted cameras—a concept that seemed quite futuristic at the time.
In authoritarian societies, advanced technology plays a key role in empowering repressive regimes. In his newly published book The Sentinel State: Surveillance and the Survival of Dictatorship in China (Harvard University Press, 2024), Chinese-American political scientist Minxin Pei explores the technologies the Chinese government employs to monitor and control its population. Pei, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College in California, details how the Chinese Communist Party has built one of the world's most extensive and sophisticated surveillance systems to maintain its power and neutralize political threats.
The technologies developed by the Chinese government to control its citizens are highly versatile and deeply integrated into the country’s political system. Launched as early as 1998, the Golden Shield project combines various surveillance technologies with national databases. This centralized platform enables police and security forces to monitor the political compliance of the population.
In addition to extensive surveillance networks, the system incorporates advanced data mining tools and real-time data collection and sharing between various security agencies. It also allows for the censorship and blocking of online content, a crucial capability for maintaining political stability in a modern authoritarian regime.
Based on the Golden Shield, China developed the Skynet system, one of the world’s largest video surveillance networks. This system, consisting of millions of high-definition cameras installed in public spaces across China, was launched in the early 2010s. It employs artificial intelligence and facial recognition software to monitor citizens' activities in real-time.
The Skynet captures images and records videos in streets, parks, public transport, and government buildings. Its capabilities extend far beyond traditional law enforcement, as it can identify individuals based on their social or political profiles. For instance, the system can cross-reference recorded faces with national ID registries, criminal databases, and blacklists of political dissidents.
In 2017, BBC reporter John Sudworth conducted an experiment in collaboration with authorities in the city of Guiyang, southwestern China. He asked the police to find him in the city, which has a population of five million. It took law enforcement just seven minutes to locate him using facial recognition technology.
Following the Skynet system, China introduced the Sharp Eyes initiative, expanding surveillance into rural areas and residential neighborhoods. Sharp Eyes operates on the principle of "every citizen is a surveillance camera": it allows citizens to view public security camera footage on their TV screens or mobile apps and report suspicious activities to local authorities. This decentralized surveillance network encourages citizens to monitor and report on one another.
China’s surveillance society is further supported by an organizational structure optimized for such control. Cities and towns are divided into small sectors, each overseen by a so-called Grid Manager. These local managers report daily activities of residents to local authorities. Equipped with mobile devices and apps, they can report suspicious behavior or expressions of dissent. One of their objectives is to instill in citizens a constant sense of being monitored.
In more remote regions, particularly in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwest China, where the government represses ethnic minorities, extensive DNA and biometric data collection is in place. Authorities have collected DNA samples, fingerprints, iris scans, and voice samples from millions of Uyghurs. This data is stored in national databases and used to monitor ethnic or politically active groups. In Xinjiang, data collection is especially aggressive, with checkpoints, police stations, and mobile units gathering biometric and other personal information to track and suppress potential dissent.
Pei delves deeply into the social credit system, in which each Chinese citizen is assigned a score based on evidence of "pro-social" or "anti-social" behavior and perceived political loyalty. Based on this score, the government can reward or punish individuals. The system allows for public shaming, such as disclosing the names of debtors, and imposing additional penalties, such as restricting access to certain public services, bank loans, luxury hotels, and restaurants. However, Pei notes that the system’s full implementation is still in progress, and there is not yet clear evidence of its overall effectiveness.
In a more nuanced and informal way, the "social credit" system has its parallels in Western societies, where it manifests as "cancel culture." The fundamental difference, of course, is that in democracies, the state can only "cancel" individuals in specific, legally sanctioned circumstances, usually related to national security, and even then, it must be based on verifiable facts. Additionally, individuals have the right to challenge such actions in court.
The advancement of digital totalitarianism has been significantly fueled by the modern epidemic of smartphone dependency. The tracking of mobile phone locations and usage has become a critical tool in the Chinese Communist Party’s arsenal of repression. It is especially useful for identifying and apprehending participants in unsanctioned protests or other forms of dissent.
Chinese telecommunications companies are legally obligated to retain and provide personalized communication data to the government. During the COVID-19 pandemic, location tracking became a commonplace method for enforcing quarantine measures. This data, combined with extensive surveillance networks, allows authorities to map the real-time activities of political activists, monitor their movements, and preemptively dismantle organized dissent.
The Future of Estonian Policing: Drones, Drug Meters, and the Ability to See Through Obstacles
In recent years, Europol, the organization that unifies European police services, has been awarding innovation prizes, with the Estonian police often emerging as notable recipients.
Kristi Hallas, Deputy Director General for Development at the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board (PPA), identifies three core areas driving the evolution of law enforcement: technology, human behavior, and police operations. Among the most groundbreaking technological advancements, she highlights the drone docking station initiative, a portable drug meter, and a sophisticated scanner capable of detecting objects through obstacles.
Estonia is not alone in pioneering drone usage for traffic surveillance and public order management—Sweden and the Netherlands have also conducted successful pilot projects. Estonia’s drone docking station project, supported by the Government Office’s Innovation Fund, envisions drones autonomously responding to incidents in large cities, such as minor traffic accidents, capturing and documenting scenes with greater speed and precision than conventional patrol units. This innovative approach has the potential to alleviate traffic congestion, particularly during peak hours in urban environments.
Drones stationed in strategically placed docking stations across high-traffic areas of the city would autonomously fly to accident scenes, capturing critical data and transmitting it instantly for processing. According to a recent report by the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, this capability is already within reach of modern technology, though recording in low-light areas remains a challenge. However, most densely trafficked urban zones are typically well-lit, making this limitation less pressing.
A groundbreaking development is the drug meter, currently being co-developed by the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board and Tallinn University of Technology. Once fully deployed, this device would revolutionize traffic policing by enabling officers to test drivers for drug use with the same ease as alcohol testing. The meter is designed to detect nearly all common narcotics, with the flexibility to incorporate additional detection capabilities as needed. While similar devices have been developed internationally, the collaboration between the Estonian Police and TalTech has produced the first drug meter capable of providing results admissible in court.
This innovation, which earned Europol’s 2023 Best Technological Innovation award, has been hailed as a potential game-changer in the fight against drug-impaired driving. However, the current prototype remains too bulky for widespread deployment, and further refinement is required to create a more affordable, portable version suitable for regular police use.
The third technological development focus for the Estonian Police involves the ability to "see through obstacles." While police officers won’t be walking through walls, Estonia has already tested emerging technology that could, for example, provide border control officers or customs officials with a 3D image of a vehicle’s interior, displaying all living and non-living objects inside. Plans are also underway to explore the potential use of this technology for viewing inside buildings.
The technology in question is known as muon tomography. Estonian deep-tech company GScan is among the first globally to harness natural muon radiation for scanning objects and identifying the materials within. In partnership with the Estonian Police, the aim is to develop a prototype scanner for use at border checkpoints, a truly groundbreaking advancement that would be the first of its kind worldwide.
On the front of behavioral innovation, the Estonian Police has already attracted media attention for its novel "cooling-off stop," a creative alternative to speeding fines. This behavioral intervention, devised in collaboration with the Government Office’s innovation team, became law in 2021. Though not yet widely adopted, another behavioral initiative—this time focused on language—has gained more momentum.
The Estonian Police has revised the wording of speeding fines to make them more relatable and impactful, with the goal of encouraging safer driving habits. The revised notice includes a conscience-evoking message: "We believe you didn’t speed intentionally and that you likely wish to be among those drivers who contribute to improving Estonia’s traffic culture." According to Laura Aaben, the innovation manager of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board, this change reflects the police’s trust in the public and is designed to foster voluntary compliance with the law.
The impact of this change was tested over three months and showed that people paid fines faster and made greater use of the online warning fine portal, reducing the need for sending registered letters. The effect was consistent regardless of the fine amount.
While the Estonian Police has not been able to analyze the broader impact of this nudging technique on driving behavior due to restrictions on the use of personal data, they did observe changes in traffic statistics, specifically a decrease in speed camera violations.
The Estonian Police's extensive international cyber operation PhishOff was awarded Europol's 2024 Innovation Award in the operations category. During the operation, the e-commerce platform LabHost, operated by cybercriminals, was shut down, and its organizers were arrested. LabHost provided a "turnkey" service for anyone looking to steal personal and banking data from unsuspecting internet users for criminal purposes. What set this platform apart from other similar services was its user-friendly interfaces, which allowed a new group of criminals, with limited IT knowledge, to enter the phishing market and engage in this type of crime.
What made Operation PhishOff particularly unique, according to Hannes Kelt, head of the Cyber and Economic Crime Unit at the PPA's North Prefecture, was that typically, authorities manage to arrest a few organizers behind such criminal operations, but the platform itself continues to operate. This time, the Estonian Police used three specially developed software tools to not only arrest the ringleaders but also cause users to abandon the LabHost service simultaneously.
Through Telegram message exchanges, including the use of bots, enough panic was created among users to make them wary of the LabHost brand. This large-scale information operation, typically seen in military contexts, delivered the desired result. The PhishOff brand itself became so feared among criminals during the operation that it has since been adopted internationally. Today, it can be said that the operation initiated by the Estonians continues to have a life of its own on a global scale.
Adding to the distinctiveness of the original PhishOff operation is the fact that, although it was initiated and successfully completed by the Estonian Police, none of the perpetrators had any connection to Estonia. The server infrastructure used by the criminals was based in Lithuania, while the ringleader operated out of London. As cybercrime becomes increasingly globalized, so too is cyber policing becoming more international in scope.