Rail Baltica Could Be a Military Lifeline for the Baltics—If It Stays on Track

Military movement by rail is simply far more efficient than slow road convoys.

In March 2020, Lawrence co-authored a report with retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges and retired Colonel Ray Wojcik, recommending that investments in military mobility infrastructure be classified as defense expenditures.

The report emphasized the need for significant investments in rail infrastructure, including heavy load rail wagons and logistical hubs, to enhance military mobility in the region​. Critical chokepoints, such as the Suwałki Corridor, were identified as having limited rail and road capacity. Enhancing infrastructure in these areas was deemed to be crucial for maintaining operational flow during military reinforcements​ by the reporters.

A unique security vulnerability of the Baltic region has been the reliance on the Russian gauge railway network in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which primarily connects to Russia. While the region’s good rail connection to Russia and its different track gauge from the rest of Europe is not a security threat in itself, it poses challenges for moving large military forces, according to Anthony Lawrence.

The wagons used to transport military equipment are shared across this network and could be located in any of the former Soviet republics at any given time. "In a crisis, obtaining a sufficient number of wagons for transporting armored vehicles could prove to be quite difficult," Anthony Lawrence warned.

Despite years of delay, the construction of Rail Baltica passanger terminal is already underway in Tallinn, Estonia.

“This will be the northernmost point of the connection and the starting point for Estonia’s 215-kilometer section of the rail line,” explained Anvar Salomets, CEO of Rail Baltica Estonia.

In future, travel from Tallinn to Vilnius will take less than four hours on the high-speed line, compared to the current 12 hours, the BBC reported.

Three Baltic States have faced criticism over mismanagement of the project and concerns mount over the ballooning costs. According to BBC, Rail Baltica is now projected to cost as much as €24 billion. To date, the EU has funded 85% of the project.

French engineer Emilien Dang, speaking to the BBC, attributed the rising costs to the pandemic, inflation, and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Walking through the construction site of a new terminal in Riga, he also pointed to cultural challenges. "In France, there’s a misconception that the Baltics are a single entity. In reality, there are three countries here, each with its own regulations."

"Estonia is in Europe, we are a member state of the European Union, but our international railway network is a relic of the times when Estonia was governed by the Russian Tsar," security expert Indrek Sirp wrote back in 2022 in an op-ed to Postimees.

Ukraine also utilizes its railway system for military transport, as well as for evacuating people, delivering humanitarian aid, and exporting Ukrainian grain. State leaders and high-ranking foreign visitors travel to Kyiv by train, as in a country at war, moving around by train is still safer than by plane.

"While a decade ago the EU placed little emphasis on military needs in the development of trans-European transport infrastructure, since 2017, military mobility has taken center stage," noted Indrek Sirp with optimism.

Enhancing Europe’s military mobility goes beyond mere infrastructure upgrades. It encompasses the streamlining of border crossings and customs procedures for military transport, along with establishing unified standards for dual-use infrastructure. This initiative represents a crucial nexus of cooperation between the EU and NATO. To support these efforts, the European Union has earmarked a dedicated €1.69 billion for the development of dual-use infrastructure projects.

A separate challenge lies in the Baltic States’ ability to coordinate their objectives and actions. Estonia and Latvia have long debated the route; while Estonia is now prepared to build its section up to the Latvian border, Latvia's government prioritizes (understandably, from a military standpoint) completing its connection with Lithuania. This leaves Estonia in a precarious position—ready to extend its track to the border, yet with no clear timeline for when Latvia will meet it.

The disjointed approach of the Baltic governments in advancing Rail Baltica, coupled with the project’s escalating costs, has drawn criticism, including from Estonia's Chief of Defense, Major General Andrus Merilo. In a recent interview with Postimees, he acknowledged that while Rail Baltica will be useful once operational, "it is no magic wand. From the perspective of a simple soldier, the project’s cost is so high that the funds could instead be used to acquire the military capabilities we intend to transport via the railway."

Merilo further noted that Rail Baltica could serve its purpose in a conflict only as long as movement remains possible. However, it would be far easier to cut off Rail Baltica than to disable the road network.

From a military perspective, the cost of Rail Baltica is excessive, with its primary value being economic, Major General Andrus Merilo stated in a brief interview published on November 7.