AUTOMATED ATTRITION ⟩ Valerii Zaluzhnyi: The Future of Warfare Is Here, and NATO Is Falling Behind

Photo: Jordan Pettitt/AP

11th November 2024, 18:37

Former Ukrainian Defense Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi cautions that NATO is clinging to outdated Cold War doctrines and legacy systems, while the battlefield is being transformed by AI and agile, cost-effective and scalable technologies.

Zaluzhnyi shared his analysis of modern warfare in a November 9 Telegram post, urging NATO nations to prioritize the development of national resilience.

Reflecting on his contributions to a seminar hosted by the Royal Netherlands Army and the Bundeswehr, Zaluzhnyi underscored the urgency of preparing for the challenges of 2030 and enhancing NATO’s defense capabilities.

“The most significant outcome of emerging technological advancements could be the restoration of the capability to conduct effective offensive operations at both operational and strategic levels,” he remarked, referring to the current WWI type attritional war reality that has haunted the Ukrainian battle fields for at least two past years.

However, Zaluzhnyi warned that the revolution in military technology—dominated by unmanned systems and artificial intelligence—will likely focus on crippling strategic military and civilian infrastructure across entire nations.

"The ongoing technological revolution has ushered in a new era of warfare, one centered on attrition, where the path to achieving political objectives lies in systematically exhausting the enemy’s resources and capabilities,” Zaluzhnyi explained. He emphasized that for the alliance's member states to remain effective, building a system of national resilience must become a top priority in countering this emerging form of conflict.

Zaluzhnyi delivered a much starker warning during his earlier October 18 address at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. His message was as urgent as it was unsettling: the nature of war has fundamentally changed, and NATO is dangerously behind the curve.

“The war has changed,” Zaluzhnyi declared. “There will be no war of the 1953 model—I’m talking about the Korean War, which effectively ended in the summer of 2023 in Ukraine—when two professional armies, each more than a million strong, faced off against each other on the battlefield.” The conventional paradigms of war, grounded in large-scale troop deployments and mechanized combat, are now relics of a bygone era.

Zaluzhnyi recounted the skepticism he faced in earlier years when he spoke of the looming technological revolution in warfare. “When robots entered the battlefield, there was laughter from the Western press and local generals,” he said. “However, by 2024, technology, particularly artificial intelligence, began to play a significant role in warfare.” The laughter has since subsided, replaced by a growing recognition of the profound impact of AI and automation on modern conflict.

Even in the United Kingdom, he noted, there is now a dawning awareness of the need to adapt national defense strategies. Yet, Zaluzhnyi’s critique of NATO was sharp. “It seems that NATO has remained silent and hasn’t adapted to the changes in global security,” he observed. Despite the transformative power of emerging technologies, the alliance continues to rely on outdated doctrines and weapons systems inherited from the mid-20th century.

“Global security continues to be built on expensive weapons systems, including missiles, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers,” Zaluzhnyi said. These tools of war, while formidable, are increasingly vulnerable in a conflict where the production and deployment of such systems at scale are unsustainable. “In a massive war, the capacity to produce these systems at scale will diminish, reducing their effectiveness,” he warned.

Zaluzhnyi’s analysis points to a sobering conclusion: the future of global security cannot rely solely on legacy hardware. The emphasis must shift toward scalable, flexible, and technologically advanced systems. AI-driven drones, cyber capabilities, and automated defense platforms are not just supplemental tools; they are becoming the central pillars of military strategy.

For Zaluzhnyi, these insights are not academic musings—they are rooted in the existential struggle of his own country. “Unfortunately, the future of global security cannot rely solely on these outdated means,” he stated. He emphasized the urgency of his message: the world must prepare for a new era of conflict, one where technological superiority and adaptability will determine the outcome.

Terms

resilience