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DIRE METRICS ⟩ Unprecedented Surge in State-Involved Armed Conflicts Since WW II

Photo: Justin Tang/The Canadian Press/PA Images
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The number of state-involved armed conflicts surged globally in 2023, even as conflict-related deaths were halved, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.

Uppsala University in Sweden recorded 59 state-involved conflicts in 2023—the highest number since data collection began in 1946.

Meanwhile, the number of deaths from conflict violence was cut in half compared to the previous year, largely due to the conclusion of the brutal war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region at the end of 2022.

“However, several exceptionally deadly wars persist, such as the war in Ukraine, which claimed nearly 71,000 lives last year, and Israel’s war against Hamas, where UCDP recorded over 22,000 deaths in 2023,” explained Shawn Davies, Senior Analyst at UCDP.

Despite the global drop in organized violence fatalities—from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023—the year was among the deadliest since UCDP began tracking conflict deaths in 1989.

“Only three years have been deadlier than 2023. Apart from the 1994 Rwandan genocide, the years 2021 and 2022 are also on that list,” Davies added.

There were nine wars in 2023 (defined as conflicts with over 1,000 deaths per year), one more than the previous year and the highest count since 2017. Most were in Africa, with Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in 2023, ranking as the third deadliest conflict, following those in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine.

Civilians often bear the brunt of such conflicts. Although UCDP recorded a decline in one-sided violence against civilians, thousands fell victim in conflicts in Sudan, Burkina Faso, Israel, and Myanmar. In total, just over 10,000 civilian deaths were reported in 2023, down from 12,000 the previous year.

“For the ninth consecutive year, IS, or Daesh, was the group responsible for the most civilian deaths in one-sided violence, though their toll dropped sharply compared to 2022. The group remained active in 16 countries, engaging in activities such as shootings, beheadings, and large-scale coordinated suicide bombings,” noted Therese Pettersson, Senior Analyst and Project Manager at UCDP.

In non-state conflicts, where the state is not directly involved, UCDP recorded a slight decline in 2023, with 20,900 deaths across 75 conflicts.

“It’s too early to declare a lasting shift. The past decade remains the deadliest for non-state violence, much of it driven by clashes between gangs and cartels,” Pettersson cautioned.

Most non-state conflicts occur in Latin America, with Mexico and Brazil witnessing the worst violence, concentrated in cities and along drug trafficking routes.

“However, this violence is now appearing in Europe. In 2023, UCDP recorded Europe’s first active gang conflict, between rival gangs in Marseille. Similar patterns, including escalating violence from splits and alliances, are increasingly visible in Sweden,” Garoun Engström, Senior Analyst at UCDP, explained.

So far, Sweden’s conflicts fall short of UCDP’s active conflict threshold, defined as conflicts causing at least 25 battle-related deaths annually. Wars are those resulting in 1,000 or more deaths per year.

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