ANALYSIS In 2025, Ukraine May Undergo a Significant Renewal of Power

Photo: Ukraina Presidendi Pressiteenistus/afp/scanpix

New pro-European movements in Ukraine aim to replace President Zelensky's ruling party. Ukrainian commentator Dmytro Bobritski, in his op-ed, describes the evolving political landscape of the war-torn country.

In 2025, Ukraine may undergo a significant renewal of power. It is increasingly evident that the public is yearning for the rise of new political leaders, such as former armed forces chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi. However, any transfer of power depends on the Ukrainian army's ability to halt the advance of Russian occupiers on the frontlines and secure an acceptable peace agreement with an aggressive Kremlin.

The Servant of the People party, which secured an absolute majority in Ukraine’s parliament in 2019, has almost no chance of maintaining its leadership position in the next elections—whether they are held this year after a ceasefire or later.

According to a survey conducted last fall by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 55% of Ukrainians expressed either very negative (32%) or somewhat negative (23%) views of Servant of the People’s performance in parliament. A similar fate befell former President Viktor Yushchenko’s party, Our Ukraine, in the mid-2000s, as well as other political projects associated with Ukraine’s presidents. None have stood the test of time.

Since winning the 2019 elections, over 20 Servant of the People MPs have been expelled from the party due to corruption or other scandals. In 2023, Zelensky admitted that the party’s candidate selection process was a fiasco. He even expressed willingness to dissolve parliament, though the law prohibits holding new elections during wartime. “Yes, Servant of the People is already a rotten fruit,” one member of Zelensky’s team, involved in founding the party, admitted to me. According to this insider, Zelensky’s closest advisors see no viable path forward for the ruling party in the next elections.

What Is Zaluzhnyi Planning?

Zelensky faces a dilemma: should he disband Servant of the People entirely or pursue a complete overhaul of the party? So far, no decision has been made on which course of action would be better. For now, as the war rages on, this is not the president’s top priority.

One possibility is the creation of a so-called “military party” loyal to the president. However, one of Zelensky’s team members suggested this may not be the best option, pointing to the experience of Arseniy Yatsenyuk. After the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, then-Prime Minister Yatsenyuk established the People’s Front, which included many popular commanders from volunteer military units of that time. Yet, the party quickly collapsed and lost power.

Zelensky has also not decided whether he will run for president again. Polls conducted in spring 2024 by SOCIS—a research firm historically aligned with former President Petro Poroshenko and his European Solidarity party—suggested that Zelensky (with 32.5% support) would lose a second-round presidential election to Zaluzhnyi (67.5% support). A year ago, Zelensky removed General Zaluzhnyi from his position as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Zaluzhnyi is now serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom.

The President’s Office was initially highly critical of the prospect of Zaluzhnyi entering politics. However, this stance appears to have softened. One aide to Andriy Yermak, the influential head of the President’s Office, confirmed to me that the authorities are beginning to accept the possibility of Zaluzhnyi running for president. They will not obstruct him if he decides to step down as ambassador.

According to the same advisor, all of Zelensky’s current efforts are focused on freezing the war for at least four years—the duration of the incoming U.S. administration, led by Donald Trump. “It will then be up to Zaluzhnyi or someone else to decide what to do next and how to defend the country,” the advisor, who requested anonymity, remarked.

I find it hard to believe that Zelensky's team would act so generously and allow Zaluzhnyi to freely resign from his ambassadorial post. Zaluzhnyi will still have to navigate numerous political maneuvers.

It’s possible that Zaluzhnyi may not even form his own political party. His allies in parliament could instead include Poroshenko’s party, which has a loyal right-wing conservative voter base, and one or more new political forces rallying around European slogans.

Who Are These New Political Forces?

There is open discussion about a prominent “volunteer” (a term used in Ukraine for those who assist the army), Serhiy Prytula, potentially transforming his charitable foundation into a political project after the war. However, in addition to this, two other emerging political forces—both reformist in nature—are gaining traction in Ukraine.

The first is the foundation We Build Ukraine, founded by Oleksandr Kubrakov and Mustafa Nayyem. Kubrakov is a former deputy prime minister responsible for infrastructure, while Nayyem, one of the leaders of the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, previously headed a national agency focused on infrastructure recovery. The project has unofficial backing from Kubrakov’s ally Olena Shuliak, the current official leader of Servant of the People.

In May 2024, parliament dismissed the Western-leaning Kubrakov from his post. Officially, the reason cited was the failure of regional policies. However, insiders suggest other factors were at play, such as his close ties with the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and his active involvement in efforts to expose corrupt lawmakers.

The foundation publicly declares its mission to develop a strategic plan for Ukraine’s economic growth during the war and post-war reconstruction. Forming a political party would seem like a logical next step toward this goal. However, the founders of We Build Ukraine deny any intention of creating a party.

Opposition Challengers Critical of Power

Another intriguing political project is led by former high-ranking officials in the energy sector: Volodymyr Kudrytskyi and Olena Zerkal, both known for their pro-Western stance. This project does not yet have a name.

Kudrytskyi was recently removed from his position as CEO of Ukraine’s national electricity grid operator, Ukrenergo, for reasons similar to Kubrakov’s dismissal. Kudrytskyi was one of the few figures in the national energy sector who remained beyond the influence of the powerful energy minister, Herman Halushchenko. After years of attempts to oust him, Kudrytskyi was finally forced out on the third try.

In private conversations, Kudrytskyi has spoken about his political ambitions and his willingness to work toward them. His partner on this path is Olena Zerkal, a diplomat and lawyer. Most recently, Zerkal served as an advisor to the CEO of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s largest state-owned energy company. She has been a vocal critic of Zelensky’s administration, calling out corruption and inefficiency within the government.

Copy

Terms

Top