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The Baltic States’ Absence from the London Ukraine Summit Sends an Unsettling Signal to Moscow

Photo: Justin Tallis, AFP
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What took place in the Oval Office on the last day of February was chilling, with consequences for all parties involved. And the folly continued over the weekend in London, writes Erkki Koort, an expert at the Estonian Academy of Internal Security.

In Europe, reactions to the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky are genuinely dismayed. What took place in the Oval Office far exceeded worst expectations regarding how bluntly Trump intends to end the war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasized ending the war between Russia and Ukraine as a key issue, but he never specified how he planned to do it.

The Baltic States have reason to be concerned and to ask critical questions. What can be done to further strengthen their security? What is the state of their alliances? Has Europe taken the initiative? Has London? Does Europe need a new leader? A new Winston Churchill?

Yes, Europe needs leadership, but certainly not another Churchill, because for the Baltic States, that name signifies not freedom, but occupation. The deal struck in Yalta in 1945, with London’s participation, condemned them to fifty years of Soviet occupation. So, no more Churchills.

Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin seated at the Yalta Conference in Crimea, where the three discussed the post-war reorganization of Europe.
Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin seated at the Yalta Conference in Crimea, where the three discussed the post-war reorganization of Europe. Photo: Bettmann Archive / Getty Images

The meeting taking place in London on Sunday is significant. It follows the fiasco in Washington and precedes the EU summit. The British have stepped up to take the initiative, unwilling to leave European decision-making to the French or the EU. London must act to avoid sidelining itself from shaping the continent’s security landscape.

What is unsettling, however, is that neither Estonia nor the other Baltic States are at the table. Considering Estonia's, Latvia's, and Lithuania’s substantial contributions to Ukraine’s defense relative to their budgets, their exclusion is unexpected. Meanwhile, several nations that have offered far less received invitations.

Eighteen countries received invitations to London. The European Union has 27 member states, but London is under no obligation to limit its guest list to EU borders or even European borders. The UK has the freedom to make its own decisions, yet the absence of the Baltic States at the table is troubling.

This moment calls for reflection on what went wrong. Perhaps there is a need for the Baltic States to reassess their diplomatic weight. However, the issue may not lie in what Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have or haven’t done to enhance their standing.

The true concern lies in how the Baltic States' adversaries and rivals interpret this exclusion from high-level discussions. Both Russia and China will take careful note of the lines London—perhaps inadvertently—has drawn on the geopolitical map. At another time, this might have been dismissed as a routine gathering, but in an era where America drifts further from Europe while edging closer to Russia, such deliberate diplomatic fissures risk deepening into a far greater challenge for the entire continent.

Just as Washington seems unaware of the consequences of its actions, it is surprising that London doesn’t seem to grasp them either.

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