Germany Prepares for a ‘Second Zeitenwende’ to Rebuild the Bundeswehr Amid Shortages in Technology and Troops

Shortly afterward, on March 18, the outgoing parliament approved a historic funding package and amended the constitution, enabling a substantial and long-term increase in defense spending. A special investment fund totaling 500 billion euros was established, and expenditures on infrastructure and defense exceeding one percent of GDP were exempted from Germany’s constitutional debt brake.

Frank Sauer, head of research at the Bundeswehr's Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight at the University of Munich, praised the initiatives put forward by Friedrich Merz’s incoming coalition but suggested these steps were long overdue. Now, Germany faces a situation where it must do everything, everywhere, and all at once—and at great cost. “We made a decision to spend a significant amount of money to compensate for things we mistakenly thought we didn't need to do over the past 30 years,” Sauer told to Estonian newspaper Postimees.

Germany’s infrastructure, too, is generally in poor condition, and investments there would have both economic and military benefits. “Bridges shouldn't be collapsing, whether you’re simply driving over them with a car or moving tanks across them in an emergency. These things must be addressed, and now the necessary funds are finally available,” Sauer explained.

Several security experts emphasized the need to accelerate the procurement of military equipment and streamline related processes by significantly reducing bureaucracy. “Everything currently takes too long and is overly bureaucratic—that’s simply a fact. The crucial question now is whether the new government can reform the rules effectively enough to ensure that the substantial funds flowing into the system deliver results more swiftly. No one disputes this anymore. The real question is whether we’re finally prepared to do what’s necessary,” Sauer said.

Heinrich Brauß, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Policy and Planning and a retired Bundeswehr lieutenant general, also noted that given the ongoing threat posed by Russia, Germany’s new governing coalition understands the urgency of rebuilding the Bundeswehr. However, he acknowledged this would be challenging, as it involves dismantling deeply rooted bureaucratic structures and accelerating procurement processes from years to mere months.

“We will likely need to pursue entirely new and unconventional approaches to civilian, industrial, military, and political collaboration—and do so permanently. It’s as if we must be ready to handle a crisis by tomorrow, while simultaneously ensuring coordinated cooperation with the Americans stationed in Europe, hoping that Trump will continue to keep them here,” Brauß explained.

According to Frank Sauer, Germany must continue producing Leopard tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles, but given the lengthy timelines involved, it’s necessary to look beyond them. “I think it would be very sensible to identify areas where we can quickly achieve results using technology that is readily available and effective,” he said, citing drones and loitering munitions as examples. 

“We can produce these much faster, and they're highly cost-effective. Essentially, we can combat enemy tanks at a hundredth of the cost—destroying a €2.5 million tank with ammunition that costs €25,000. If organized properly, we can produce and stockpile large quantities of ammunition with stable supply chains,” he explained.

Högl's report highlights that although Germany plans to expand its armed forces to 203,000 soldiers by 2031, troop numbers have actually declined—from 181,807 to 180,976—compared to the previous year. By the end of last year, nearly 20 percent of non-commissioned officer positions and as many as 28 percent of regular soldier roles remained unfilled.

“One of our biggest problems is personnel—we simply don’t have enough people. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already acknowledged that we need around 460,000 personnel, including reservists, to achieve what’s known as full operational capability,” Brauß explained.

At its peak after World War II, Germany’s Bundeswehr had nearly 500,000 soldiers. However, following reunification in 1990, troop numbers were drastically reduced. In 2011, Germany suspended mandatory military service, transitioning instead to a fully professional army, as large-scale territorial defense was considered unnecessary under the security assessments of the time.

Instead of national defense, the Bundeswehr shifted its focus toward participation in foreign missions. Now, as coalition negotiations proceed between the election-winning Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats, one significant topic on the table—given the drastically altered security environment—is not only the increase in defense spending but also the reinstatement of conscription.

Security experts see this as the only viable solution to the personnel shortage. “To secure the necessary personnel, we must reinstate compulsory military service. Currently, the Bundeswehr has about 180,000 soldiers, but money and attractive incentives alone won't get us to the numbers we need. We require a mobilization reserve—reservists, who can only be generated through an appropriate form of conscription. Discussions are ongoing about various models,” Brauß explained.

One option under consideration is the so-called Swedish model, in which young people are surveyed about their willingness to complete military service, and those expressing readiness are selected accordingly. 

This approach is supported by the Social Democrats (SPD), the likely junior partner in Germany’s future governing coalition. Currently, voluntary military service is already available. However, the election-winning CDU prefers either reinstating the traditional form of compulsory service or introducing a broader "social year," where all young people would perform either military or civilian social service.

Security experts share similar views. "For a limited time period, young men and women who want to serve—or, in my opinion, should serve—not only in the Bundeswehr but also in other essential services, should be included. In other words, an entire generation would participate, with at least some receiving basic military training. I'd suggest about six months of initial training, followed by regular call-ups as reservists so that everyone knows exactly where to report, what tasks they’ll undertake, and what equipment they'll use," Brauß said.

Sauer also emphasized the need for compulsory military service in Germany, suggesting it should include everyone, women included. "I think it would be best if everyone—explicitly both men and women—had a service obligation, which would strengthen societal resilience. To me, it shouldn't just be military service in the narrow sense, connected to the armed forces, but also a broader duty aimed explicitly at building specific skills and resilience. That way, we as a society can respond effectively to conflicts and emergencies," Sauer explained.

Sauer, however, believes the debate over conscription in Germany will continue for quite some time, as any major reform would require amending the constitution, necessitating a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag. Achieving this under the new parliamentary composition would require support from political extremes—the Left Party (Die Linke) or the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). 

Technically, Germany never abolished conscription but merely suspended it, meaning it could theoretically be reinstated in its old form. Under this scenario, only men would be required to serve, with the German constitution explicitly providing an option to refuse military service in favor of alternative civilian service.

“Reintroducing conscription in its old form might be acceptable as an emergency solution due precisely to the current parliamentary situation and the difficulty of securing broader consensus—but it's certainly not ideal,” explained Sauer. 

He expressed doubts about whether the new government could successfully propose a modernized version of conscription capable of garnering the necessary votes. Another critical question is how much longer Germany can afford to debate what measures are needed, given today’s rapidly evolving security landscape.

Germany already faces significant issues with inadequate infrastructure, limited barracks space, and shortages of training personnel within the Bundeswehr, meaning the army is currently not prepared to accommodate a large number of conscripts. According to Högl’s report, investments in Bundeswehr infrastructure rose last year from €1.25 billion to €1.6 billion, but an additional €67 billion would still be required to fully modernize everything. "As a result, some barracks and facilities remain in catastrophic condition. 

After years of spending cuts, there is still an enormous backlog in renovation," the report states. These challenges also apply directly to reinstating conscription. “We've given away many barracks, so we need to find ways to accommodate conscripts again. But I believe this issue is solvable. It's just a matter of genuinely wanting to do it,” Brauß remarked.

A recent survey conducted by the Forsa Institute for Social Research and Statistical Analysis has sparked extensive debate in the German media. According to the findings, only 17 percent of Germans expressed definite readiness to defend their country, while 60 percent indicated they would be hesitant or definitely unwilling to do so.

Brauß explained that this limited willingness to defend the nation has several causes, with geography playing a major role in shaping Germans’ attitudes. “We are situated in the heart of Europe. As former Defense Minister Volker Rühe once said, ‘We are surrounded by friends and partners,’” Brauß remarked. Additionally, for decades, Germany has focused primarily on other issues like the environment and climate change, while simultaneously relying heavily on the assumption that the United States would provide Europe's defense.

Sauer noted that Germany’s history, particularly the legacy of two world wars, also plays an influential role, and while valuable lessons were learned, there is now a pressing need for society to rethink its approach given today’s altered security landscape. “As a friend of mine put it, we need to put on our big-boy pants while making sure we leave the brown shirts firmly in the closet. 

In other words, how can we position ourselves reasonably, appropriately, and maturely in the current security environment without drifting into any extremes?” Sauer reflected.

German security experts concluded that despite the numerous issues needing attention within the Bundeswehr, the German military remains combat-ready and capable of protecting its allies if required. “The Bundeswehr is fundamentally capable of fighting, and certainly more so as part of NATO, toward which our defense policy is oriented,” Sauer said. However, he acknowledged that if the U.S. were ever to withdraw its comprehensive support—ranging from strategic transportation to intelligence—Europe would immediately encounter severe difficulties.

“We're not yet where we ideally should be. But the situation is better than one typically perceives from reading newspapers. We ourselves have weakened the Bundeswehr over the years, and now we must revive it. This is precisely the aim of the EU initiative aptly named ‘Rearm Europe,’” Brauß added.