Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys Says Russia Boosts Forces Ahead of Zapad Exercise and NATO Should Respond in Kind

"These developments must be carefully monitored and addressed. Responding is not merely about raising awareness among allies ; it involves directly countering the increased military presence in the area," the Lithuanian foreign minister said to Lihthuanian National Broadcast (LRT ) on April 9. "NATO must follow a mirrored approach. Our consistent message is clear: Russia should not be permitted to create favorable conditions or circumstances conducive to opportunistic actions." Budrys emphasized that the alliance closely monitors the number of Russian troops sent to Belarus for participation in the exercises, as well as their activities leading up to and during the drills . "From this observation, we can deduce Russia's intentions—whether it aims to enhance interoperability with Belarus , as it has done before, or if it is utilizing lessons learned from Ukraine to gauge NATO's reactions, send a strong message , or prepare for other potential scenarios," the minister explained. He added that Lithuania and other countries in the region have attracted the attention of NATO allies due to the upcoming exercises this fall.

Budrys also stressed that Vilnius and other Baltic capitals remain prepared to swiftly respond to possible provocations, unintended incidents, or other actions. "Lithuania and the other Baltic states will undoubtedly react swiftly to any such situations. We certainly won't spend weeks establishing working groups or writing evaluations, conclusions, and recommendations.  We will act immediately and are prepared to do so," said Budrys. According to Baltic News Service, Lithuania's armed forces do not foresee additional military threats to Lithuania from this year's Zapad exercises. However, the primary concern remains the increased risk of unintended incidents, military officials noted. Military officials anticipate an uptick in disinformation associated with this year's Russian-Belarusian joint exercises. Scheduled for September, the Zapad exercises have been held biennially since 2009. Officially, the drills aim to practice joint defensive and offensive operations, enhance interoperability between armed forces, and test military readiness for various security scenarios. The last planned Zapad exercise was not conducted in 2023. British intelligence identified likely reasons for the cancellation as shortages of Russian military personnel and equipment, as well as Russian leadership's unwillingness to invite criticism for conducting routine demonstrations while engaged in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine . In 2021, the exercises involved military personnel from Russia, its ally Belarus , and several other nations , becoming among the largest in recent years. At that time , it was reported that the active phase of Zapad-2021 occurred across nine training grounds in Russia and five in Belarus . In 2022, Belarus and Russia conducted a large-scale joint exercise called Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve ), which commenced two weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.