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Russia was preparing to launch the intercontinental ballistic missile Yars today, which Ukrainian military intelligence claims was intended as a threat against Ukraine and NATO countries. According to the latest information, however, the test failed.
Ukrainian military intelligence previously reported that the missile launch on May 19 was intended to "demonstrate pressure on Ukraine and intimidate EU and NATO member states."
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the launch was supposed to be carried out by the 433rd regiment of the 42nd Division of Russia's 31st Strategic Missile Army. The missile, equipped with a simulated combat payload (imitation of a nuclear warhead), was to be launched from a mobile ground-based system near the village of Svobodny in the Sverdlovsk region.
Although this particular launch poses no actual threat, its timing and context are clearly provocative, Defense Express writes, as it sends a message to Ukraine, NATO, and EU countries just before the planned phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
The RS-24 Yars is technically a highly powerful weapons system: a three-stage, solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Its range exceeds 10,000 kilometers, meaning it can strike targets on the opposite side of the globe. What makes the Yars particularly capable and simultaneously frightening, however, is its ability to carry multiple nuclear warheads simultaneously.
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Russia currently possesses over 200 Yars missiles, most of which are deployed on mobile launch platforms. Although these platforms offer flexibility, they are more vulnerable to preemptive strikes compared to better-protected underground silos. The mobile Yars systems lack reinforced protective measures.
According to Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukraine's defense intelligence, Russia is currently focusing more on producing Kh-101 and Kalibr-type missiles, whose stockpiles have been significantly depleted during the war in Ukraine.
The use of a strategic missile like the Yars against Ukraine is widely considered unlikely, writes EU Today.
The missile’s payload capacity—up to 1,200 kg—is designed specifically for multiple nuclear warheads, not conventional explosives. Delivering just a few hundred kilograms of conventional explosives with an intercontinental ballistic missile would be militarily ineffective and economically senseless. However, testing the missile at an opportune moment is considered a form of nuclear deterrence.
According to recent reports, today's long-range missile launch, approximately 1,600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, may have failed, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Several other sources have confirmed this information.
According to the Kyiv Independent, the test was scheduled only a few hours before the Putin-Trump phone call. Defense Express notes that it remains unclear why the test did not occur. If launched, the missile would have been visible across much of northwestern Russia and Siberia, where it was intended to fly over.
In 2023, Russia experienced two consecutive failures in RS-24 Yars missile tests, with both missiles deviating from their intended trajectories.