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Russia has begun moving its shadow fleet of oil tankers through the Gulf of Finland under the escort Russia's armed forces, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen confirmed on May 24 in an interview with the national broadcaster Yle morning show. The Estonian Defense Forces later added that Russia has intensified its patrolling but is not directly escorting the vessels yet.
"Russia is now protecting tankers that are part of its 'shadow fleet' in the narrow waters of the Gulf of Finland. There has been military escort activity and the presence of armed forces," Häkkänen said.
On Friday, May 23, the Finnish Defense Forces reported that two Russian aircrafts had violated Finnish airspace off the coast of Porvoo. According to Häkkänen, the aircrafts involved were Russian fighter jets.
Moscow has now openly demonstrated military readiness to protect energy shipments circumventing sanctions.
"This marks a completely new level and a very serious development," Antti Häkkänen stated. According to him, while Russian military presence in the Baltic Sea is not new, such systematic armed escorts for oil tankers are unprecedented.
On May 13, an incident had occurred in the Gulf of Finland in which the Estonian Navy attempted to stop a Russian tanker violating sanctions regulations, but the vessel ignored the orders. Shortly after that, a Russian Su-35S fighter jet was spotted in the area, violating NATO airspace for a minute. This was considered by the Estonian authorities as a military response to Estonia's lawful interception of the nationless tanker Jaguar.
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Whereas the so-called shadow fleet had previously operated quietly and covertly, the Kremlin has now decided to make a show of force, signaling that it is prepared to defend its illicit oil trade.
Häkkänen stated that there is no direct threat to Finland, but added: “Russia is strengthening its military capabilities and remains a dangerous neighbor for all of Europe.”
Whether this is merely a temporary show of force or signals a more permanent shift in Russia's activities in the Baltic Sea remains to be seen. Russia's Navy has struggled in the Black Sea, where Ukraine has effectively denied it access. As a result, some of the posturing in the Baltic may be aimed more at domestic audiences than at projecting real strategic strength.
A significant portion of Russian oil transport passes through the Gulf of Finland and the Danish Straits—routes that are critically important to the security of the Baltic Sea nations. So far, Europe has mainly relied on insurance bans to enforce the oil price cap, but in practice, sanctioned crude continues to flow. Due to the low oil market prices, the likelihood of continuing a prolonged military convoy mission is currently low, as the price has fallen below $60 per barrel. This suggests that, in the near future, Russia has little need to deploy shadow fleet tankers.
Over the past month, the EU has begun considering tougher measures, including lowering the price cap to $50 or even $30 per barrel.
Commander of the Estonian Navy Ivo Värk told to Estonian Public Broadcasting that "Russia is not capable of escorting all of its shadow fleet vessels or tankers located in our waters," as "they lack the capability and resources for that, but Russia may also use ship protection teams instead" in future.
On May 27, the Russian Navy began exercises in the Baltic Sea, involving elements of the Northern Fleet and the Air Force. According to Interfax, these are planned drills, and it is not specified whether they are connected to Russia's threat to start protecting its shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea.
The Estonian Defense Forces told Estonian news portal Delfi on May 28 that although Russia has increased its presence and patrol activity in the Gulf of Finland, they cannot currently confirm any direct escort operations involving the shadow fleet. “However, it is certainly possible to use patrolling vessels to escort ships belonging to the shadow fleet,” the Defence Forces said in response to the Finnish defense minister’s claim that Russia has begun escorting shadow fleet tankers.
Russia Signals Intent to Launch Shadow Fleet Protection Operation
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Estonian National Broadcasting reports that on May 27, 2025, Nikolai Patrushev, aide to President Vladimir Putin and chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, announced that Russia is preparing to counter Western efforts to restrict its "shadow fleet" operations in the Baltic Sea. Patrushev stated that President Putin supports the Maritime Board's proposed countermeasures against what Russia perceives as Western attempts to limit maritime traffic in the region.
Patrushev accused Western nations of engaging in "piracy" under the guise of increased NATO activity in the Baltic Sea. He cited an incident where the Estonian navy attempted to intercept the Russian cargo ship Jaguar in the Gulf of Finland as an example of such actions.
He further alleged that Western countries are violating international law by attempting to control ships carrying goods for Russia in international waters. "They are adjusting the regulatory framework to do this," Patrushev claimed. He also criticized Estonia for attempting to detain ships heading to Russian ports under the pretext of protecting critical underwater infrastructure and environmental safety, noting that Estonian authorities have the legal right to open fire on "dangerously maneuvering ships."
Patrushev emphasized the need to strengthen the protection of critical maritime infrastructure in Russia's Leningrad region, citing growing threats of sabotage and terrorist acts, including those involving unmanned aerial and naval vehicles.
He concluded by asserting that the Russian Baltic Fleet is effectively ensuring the safety of maritime navigation and preventing provocations by the naval forces of unfriendly countries.
Since 2015, when Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war, the Russian Navy has used convoys in the Mediterranean to transport supplies—and later to withdraw equipment. Russian landing and cargo ships have made hundreds of trips from the Black Sea to the Syrian port of Tartus, delivering supplies to their forces. This route has earned the nickname “the Syrian Express.”
The need for escorts became particularly evident in 2022–2023, when, amid Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine, Russia began withdrawing some of its equipment from Syria.
In March 2025, the UK Royal Navy closely monitored an incident in which a Russian warship escorted the Russian-flagged roll-on/roll-off vessel MV Baltic Leader through Western European waters back to Russia. During the three-day operation, the British frigate HMS Somerset and allied patrol aircraft shadowed the Russian corvette RFS Boikiy, which had taken on the role of escort for the Baltic Leader on its journey from Syria to Russia.