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Larger war in the Middle East is currently much more probable than in 2024.
In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and ensuring the survival of the Jewish state. There is little doubt that if Tehran had sufficient military capabilities, it would have already carried out a devastating attack on Israel. According to Israel’s defense minister, this was a preemptive strike. Whether Iran was planning a major offensive in the near future remains unclear, but it's evident that such plans were underway.
In reality, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a decades-long conflict marked by fluctuating periods of intensity. Iran has repeatedly declared its intention to eliminate Israel. This goal has been actively pursued by Iran-funded terrorist groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various smaller militias across the Middle East. Iran's objectives have also been supported by the previous Syrian regime, which was backed by both Tehran and Moscow—both of which sought to leverage the situation to expand their influence in the region.
Israel has a history of targeting nuclear ambitions of hostile states. For instance, on June 7, 1981, Israeli fighter jets destroyed Iraq’s nearly completed nuclear facility just 17 kilometers outside Baghdad in Operation Opera. Interestingly, the same facility was also attacked by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Air Force in September 1980.
The selection of targets reflects an impressive level of Israeli intelligence effort. Iran’s top military leadership was killed in the initial wave of airstrikes, suggesting that Tehran did not anticipate the attack—or at least not on this scale.
Israel has carried out five waves of strikes involving 200 attack aircraft, delivering hundreds of precision hits. Primary targets include military bases, nuclear facilities, and key personnel operating them. Among the confirmed dead are at least six Iranian nuclear scientists, in addition to senior military figures.
Iranian intelligence failed catastrophically, while Israel’s intelligence network inside Iran appears far more effective than Iran’s presence in Israel. Russia’s role remains ambiguous. While Moscow is expected to condemn the attack publicly, its actual interests are less clear.
This could also point to a failure by Russian intelligence to support its ally. Had Russia possessed prior knowledge of the operation and shared it with Tehran, it might have prevented the loss of Iran’s top commanders. While Russia does not benefit from the weakening of an ally, there is another dimension: with the U.S. shifting focus toward defending Israel, more military resources and media attention are diverted from Ukraine. This creates strategic space for Russia to advance its war aims there. It seems likely that Russia had no foreknowledge of the Israeli strikes, or if they did, sharing it wouldn’t have changed the outcome.
Iran and Israel have long been locked in a shadow war—occasionally erupting into open conflict—and that covert struggle will almost certainly continue, at least as long as Iran’s current regime remains in power. The assassination of Iran’s senior military leadership likely caused confusion within its defense command structure and demonstrated to the public that even top generals are not beyond reach.
Iran has already responded by launching over a hundred drones toward Israel. Many of these were intercepted over neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia and Syria, and likely also over Iraq. In the past, Jordan has also intercepted similar threats within its airspace.
Tehran has few viable options for a meaningful military retaliation. This was made clear in 2024. When Israel assassinated a senior Hamas leader in Tehran in April of that year, most of Iran’s retaliatory rockets were intercepted. Israel did not escalate at the time. However, following another Iranian attack in October 2024, Israel responded by decimating a large portion of Iran’s air defenses—paving the way for the current operation.
Iran is expected to retaliate using all means at its disposal. This includes activating affiliated terrorist organizations. Attacks in the West, hybrid warfare by the Revolutionary Guard, or political assassinations cannot be ruled out. Still, a full-scale conventional attack is unlikely given Iran’s limited capacity. More realistic expectations include increased Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Iranian naval activity in the Persian Gulf.
One thing is certain: more waves of Israeli strikes are expected in the coming days. The Israeli military and intelligence services will likely continue targeting Iranian assets inside Iran. The goal is to neutralize as much of Iran’s capability as possible to minimize future threats. Tools for such covert operations—whether bombs, drones, or other technologies—are already in place.