GEAR SHIFT Defense Minister Sprūds Asserts Latvia Is Preparing for All Scenarios

Photo: Gatis Rozenfelds, Valsts kanceleja
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Latvia's newly adopted long-term defense development plan prioritizes long-range firepower, drone warfare, and border fortification.

Irrespective of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia will persist in vigorously enhancing its military-industrial capabilities over the next five years, thereby constituting the primary threat to Latvia's independence and perpetuating regional tension. The forecast is articulated in the development plan for Latvia's armed forces for 2025–2036, approved by the Latvian government in a closed session on July 23.

"Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine has profoundly altered the security landscape in Latvia and Europe, leaving no doubt that the aggressor, Russia, will persist as an undemocratic and hostile state – we have no reason to believe otherwise," stated Defense Minister Andris Sprūds. According to him Latvia must be prepared for all scenarios.

The NATO forward land battalion tanks in Latvia's Ādaži training area, October 2022.
The NATO forward land battalion tanks in Latvia's Ādaži training area, October 2022. Photo: Ints Kalnins

The long term defense development plan envisions investing up to 3 percent of GDP in defense by 2027. Considering the additional defense investments already made for acquiring air defense systems and strengthening the eastern border, Latvia has already allocated over 3 percent of its GDP to defense in 2023 and will continue to do so this year. Over the next 12 years, nearly €7 billion will be invested in the armed forces, with an additional €1 billion allocated for infrastructure development.

To ensure the protection of Latvia's territory and population "from the first centimeter and the first second," the development plan prioritizes fortifying the eastern border in collaboration with Lithuania and Estonia, and establishing a Baltic defense line.

A significant element of the plan is the development of military infrastructure, particularly the establishment of the Sēlija military training ground.

Latvian soldiers conducting tactical exercises.
Latvian soldiers conducting tactical exercises. Photo: SCANPIX

The plan also aims to expand the armed forces to 31,000 active-duty personnel and 30,000 reservists during peacetime. To accomplish this, recruitment into the national defense service will be bolstered, social guarantees for soldiers and conscripts shall be enhanced, and soldiers' salaries adjusted to align with labor market trends.

For the first time, the development plan includes investments in research and development, with €32 million allocated over the next 4 years. €80 million are earmarked for equipping ground forces with next-generation multi-purpose unmanned systems.

€300 will be allocated to develop indirect fire support capabilities, including the HIMARS long-range rocket system and new wheeled self-propelled artillery systems. Additionally, €500 million will be invested in improving the military's logistics system, including the creation of ammunition, food, and fuel reserves.

Latvia's new defense development plan also encompasses support for Ukraine. Key elements of this support include the Latvia-led drone coalition, ammunition supplies, and the training and equipping of Ukrainian soldiers. This assistance is planned at 0.25 percent of GDP per year, amounting to approximately €112 million this year.

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